Will Moldova join the EU?
Analysis of Moldova’s EU candidacy and public views towards potential membership + my experience in Chișinău
I landed in Chișinău two days after the EU opened accession talks with Moldova on 25 June 2024. During my trip to the capital I discussed this topic with several locals in order to understand the general attitude of the Moldovan population towards the EU, ahead of the accession referendum scheduled for 20 October 2024, alongside presidential elections. Besides examining political affairs, I will also share my general impression of Moldova where I had the honour of meeting some particularly open minded, warm, and honest people.
Moldova - country snapshot
Moldova is home to c. 2.4m people, with about 56% living in the rural areas while the municipality of the capital, Chișinău, has around 650k inhabitants. The country has seen negative net migration in recent years.
Romanian, the official state language, is also the most widely spoken language, ahead of Russian.
There are two autonomous regions - Transnistria and Gagauzia. The former is actually out of the Moldovan government’s control, having requested Russian “protection” as recently as in February 2024.
Agriculture has historically been one of key sectors of Moldova’s economy. IT has also grown significantly, now accounting for 10% of GDP, with the services being mostly exported thanks to a skilled workforce and competitive pricing. Personal remittances as a percentage of GDP stand at 12.3%, a relatively high proportion.
While Moldovan economy saw a fairly steady growth pre-Covid, the country has recently faced inflation challenges due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Inequality in Moldova, as measured by the Gini coefficient, has decreased over time to 25.7 in 2021. However, the country remains one of the poorest in Europe.
Moldovan population attitude towards the EU
Polls suggest that 62% of Moldovans have a positive image of the EU, and 63% support Moldova’s accession, with the capital and the central region being most “pro-EU”.
This sentiment was not fully reflected in the interviews I conducted in Chișinău. Views on the street were mixed at best. Only a small proportion of the people I spoke to were clearly and openly supportive of the accession plans, while the biggest proportion did not hold a clear view. Statements which repeated several times mentioned both pros and cons of joining the Union, or describing the accession as “inevitable” but neither clearly good or bad.
Here I must stress that my “survey” had some inherent bias, which I tried to minimise by asking the people what they thought about the accession, while also inquiring about the view held by the broader population. Given my language barrier (I asked questions in English or sometimes in broken Romanian), I spoke mostly to younger and middle-aged people.
It was rather clear that the younger population is generally supportive of the membership. Among the reasons why EU membership is not attractive, cultural factors were dominant. Shared values and cultural similarities with Russia were called out by several respondents, who at the same time strongly condemned Russian invasion of Ukraine and stated that the majority of the population shares that view. Around 1 million Ukrainians crossed the Moldovan border following the Russian attack, while over 100,000 (4% of Moldova’s population) were reported to remain in the country as at the end of 2023.
Will Moldova join the EU?
While we cannot answer this question directly just yet, let’s analyse what we know so far.
Referendum - what the people want
First, the citizens of Moldova will vote on the accession in the referendum which has been scheduled for autumn this year. Some people with knowledge of the matter are of the view that the timing is somewhat risky and the government should have waited until more progress has been achieved in terms of the required reforms.
Nonetheless, the most recent polls mentioned above show promising signs for the pro-EU camp.
Political will & key risks
President Maia Sandu has recently reiterated her plan to achieve Moldova’s EU accession by 2030. With a strong track record of running on a pro-EU platform, Sandu, the first female president of Moldova, has proven the existence of sufficient political will in the country to pursue EU membership. Her Party of Action and Solidarity won 52.8% of the votes in the 2021 parliamentary elections thereby achieving overall majority.
The closer Moldova gets to becoming an EU member, the higher the risk of its autonomous regions, Transnistria and Gagauzia, attempting to break away. This threat is elevated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Russia having the option of using its influence in those regions as an escalation route. Chișinău will have to strike a fine balance between pursuing EU accession and balancing the delicate relations with Tranisnistria and Gagauzia.
Fulfilling EU requirements
So far Moldova’s “road to the EU” has been rather smooth, as evidenced by the following timeline of events in recent years:
Moldova applied for EU membership in March 2022 and was granted EU candidate status in June 2022.
European Council made a decision to open accession negotiations on 14-15 December 2023.
Moldova and EU signed a Security and Defence Partnership on 21 May 2024, the first of its kind.
Accession talks opened on 25 June 2024.
With the negotiations now open, the EU has kicked off the screening process which will allow to identify key issues to be addressed as well as areas where Moldova’s preparations need to be intensified. Moldova has already made some progress towards the required structural reforms. However, these take time and necessitate sustained commitment from both politicians and the public alike.
My experience in Moldova
My experience in Moldova is sadly limited to Chișinău (and an overnight train journey to Romania, which goes beyond the scope of this article). However, I still managed to see quite a bit of the city and I met some fantastic people.
First, straight after landing I was positively struck with brand new cash machines which did not charge a withdrawal fee (though they offered a specific exchange rate with a margin). Generally, most shops offer card payments which also come in handy. There are quite a few modern cafes with English-speaking staff as well as multiple local bakeries. Public transport is very cheap, with frequent bus and trolleybus connections.
In terms of architecture, you will see a pretty unique combination of some Soviet era buildings, with older structures like the cathedral. I visited several beautiful parks - one of them, Valea Morilor Park, is situated around the lake and has sports infrastructure, including an outdoor gym and a running trail.
What surprised me to an extent was the fact that a certain part of the population knows barely any Romanian and only really speaks Russian. As a result, customer-facing businesses that want to get ahead need to hire trilingual staff, speaking Romanian, Russian, and English.
Last, but definitely not least, I had the pleasure to meet some great, open-minded and intelligent people in Chișinău. They were kind enough to provide me with useful insights about local politics and much more. It became quite clear to me that Moldovans seem to care about their country.
Till next time,
CJ
P.S. If you are planning a trip to Chișinău, I encourage you to visit a cocktail bar called Marlène. It was recommended to me by a local and did not disappoint. Apart from a particularly welcoming atmosphere and service, it offers excellent cocktails, both classic and signature (try one called Bitches Brew).